Who is going down after frantic 21-goal day? - Legit Reporters
Who is going down after frantic 21-goal day? - Legit Reporters
The battle for relegation looks like it's going to the wire.
Southampton's defeat by Nottingham Forest leaves them stranded at the bottom of the table, eight points adrift of safety and on the brink of the drop.
But, with three points separating the four teams above and three games each left to play, there is plenty more drama to come.
The big winners over the past few days were Everton and Forest, with Leeds, Leicester and Saints all suffering losses.
Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Nielsen's Gracenote, said: "Everton's shock 5-1 win at Brighton combined with defeats for Leeds United and Leicester City has had a massive effect on their chance of avoiding relegation to the Championship.
"Before the weekend, Everton were second favourites to go down (60%) and now they are the outsiders of the five on 26%. Nottingham Forest's win against Southampton, who are effectively down, has reduced Forest's chance of the drop from 53% before the weekend to 34%.
"Leeds United (73%) and Leicester City (68%) are now favourites to join Southampton in the Championship next season. However, as these results show, wins at this stage of the season change things fast."
Stats prediction
| Club | Points | Played | Goal difference | Gracenote's chance of relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 16th | 33 | 35 | -31 | 34% |
| Everton | 17th | 32 | 35 | -21 | 26% |
| Leicester | 18th | 30 | 35 | -15 | 68% |
| Leeds | 19th | 30 | 35 | -25 | 73% |
| Southampton | 20th | 24 | 35 | -33 | 100% |
Nottingham Forest (16th, 33pts)
Gracenote's chance of relegation: 34%
Nottingham Forest are in the Premier League for the first time since 1998-99 after winning promotion from the Championship last season and Steve Cooper has signed 30 players in a bid to keep them in the top division.
Two wins from the last three games leaves them as the best of the bottom five, with 33 points.
Still to play: 13 May Chelsea (a), 20 May Arsenal (h), 28 May Crystal Palace (a)
Gracenote fact: Nottingham Forest have made fewer passes this season than any other Premier League team and their percentage of completed passes (72%) is lower than every club except Brentford (70%).
Everton (17th, 32pts)
Gracenote's chance of relegation: 26%
Everton's results had improved after Sean Dyche became manager at the end of January following the sacking of Frank Lampard - but not enough to steer them clear of trouble.
Two of their remaining three fixtures - Wolves and Bournemouth - are against teams in the bottom eight.
Still to play: 14 May Manchester City (h), 20 May Wolves (a), 28 May Bournemouth (h)
Gracenote fact: Only Bournemouth have conceded more goal attempts from their opponents than the 542 Everton have faced this season. Leicester City have conceded the third most and Nottingham Forest are fourth.
Leicester City (18th, 30pts)
Gracenote's chance of relegation: 68%
Leicester finished eighth last season and reached the Europa Conference League semi-finals but they made an awful start to this campaign, picking up only one point in their first seven matches.
Manager Brendan Rodgers has been replaced by Dean Smith until the end of the season but Monday's 5-3 thrashing at Fulham leaves them in the relegation places.
Leicester have an array of attacking talent but their problem has been conceding goals, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their past 19 matches.
Still to play: 15 May Liverpool (h), 22 May Newcastle (a), 28 May West Ham (h)
Gracenote fact: With 10 goals and nine assists in this season's Premier League, Leicester's James Maddison is the only player from a relegation-threatened team with at least 16 goal contributions this term.
Leeds United (19th, 30pts)
Gracenote's chance of relegation: 73%
Jesse Marsch was sacked as manager in February with Leeds on a seven-game winless run but, after an encouraging start, things got tough for new boss Javi Gracia and he was subsequently replaced by Sam Allardyce.
Two of the final three matches for Leeds are against teams in the top seven. Winger Luis Sinisterra, whose goal against Leicester was his third in give games, will miss the run-in with an ankle ligament injury.
Still to play: 13 May Newcastle (h), 21 May West Ham (a), 28 May Tottenham (h)
Gracenote fact: Leeds United have conceded a goal from 14% of the attempts they have faced this season, the worst in the Premier League. Newcastle United are the best, allowing a goal from 8% of attempts faced.
Southampton (20th, 24pts)
Gracenote's chance of relegation: 100%
Southampton are another side on their third manager of the season after they sacked Ralph Hasenhuttl in November.
He was replaced by Nathan Jones, who only lasted eight Premier League matches and picked up one win before he was also dismissed.
Ruben Selles, assistant manager under Hasenhuttl, was next in line but they have now gone 10 matches without a win, having lost seven of those.
Still to play: 13 May Fulham (h), 21 May Brighton (a), 28 May Liverpool (h)
Gracenote fact: Southampton have kept just four clean sheets this season. The bottom four for clean sheets are all in the relegation battle as Saints are joined by Leeds United (five clean sheets), Leicester City (six) and Nottingham Forest (seven).
| Chance of avoiding relegation this season with different points totals | |
|---|---|
| Points | Chance of safety |
| 38 | 100% |
| 37 | 100% |
| 36 | 95% |
| 35 | 87% |
| 34 | 61% |
| 33 | 25% |
| 32 | 2% |
| 31 or fewer | 0% |
| Nielsen's Gracenote, Euro Club Index | |
